A Turkish turnaround?

Most reasonable people would agree that the administration of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has been heading, alarmingly, towards authoritarianism. Erdoğan has been accused of imprisoning journalists, censoring the media, attempting to exert political influence over the courts, and using the security services for his own purposes. He has pushed through revisions to the country’s constitution, arguably in his favor. He served as Turkey’s prime minister for more than a decade before becoming president. But there is one fact that is difficult to reconcile with this chain of events. Included as part of Turkey’s recent agreement with the EU on Syrian refugees was a little-noticed, and even less-discussed, provision: resumption of Turkey’s EU accession negotiations. On the face of it, it is a paradox. If Turkey is becoming increasingly authoritarian, why on earth is Erdoğan attempting to re-open accession negotiations? After all, part and parcel of EU accession negotiations is an intrusive and meticulously verified set of requirements for democratic reforms. Is Erdoğan schizophrenic? Was the measure adopted by the Turkish government despite Erdoğan’s opposition? Or, just possibly, is Erdoğan misunderstood? I would argue the latter – and that there is a distinct possibility of a Turkish turnaround. It is undeniable that Erdoğan has shown authoritarian tendencies. But he has also been misunderstood, for two reasons. First, his rhetoric is worse than the reality; and second, he has been pushed by circumstances into his authoritarian role. On the topic of Erdoğan’s rhetoric, he suffers the problem of any politician who relies on pious supporters: he’s scary when playing to his base. Of course, it is not only Erdoğan who...