Political risk has come home, and we must combat it

by | Aug 24, 2016 | Blog

The past decade has upended my profession almost entirely. I work in political risk, and my job is to advise companies how to manage political and economic instability. A coup in Turkey, sanctions against Russia, unrest in Venezuela, debt default in Argentina – such...

Why a federal Ukraine is a worst-case scenario

by | Apr 14, 2014 | Blog

Ahead of US-EU-Russia talks on the future of Ukraine on Thursday, pro-Russian protesters – possibly assisted by Russian special forces – have escalated their disruptions in Eastern Ukraine beyond Crimea. While media coverage is understandably alarmist, these...

The Eurozone’s (and Japan’s) deflation problem

by | Apr 1, 2014 | Blog

I tend to be bullish on Europe – partly as a corrective to the mass of commentators who too early wrote off the crisis in the Eurozone as irresolvable. This optimism has been justified by the recent run-up in European equities, with developed European countries...

Ukraine is Europe’s struggle, and it is likely to win

by | Mar 18, 2014 | Blog

There has been a great deal of commentary regarding alleged blunders that have led us to the current position in Ukraine (as I write this, the Ukrainian province of Crimea has voted to join Russia, and Russia has recognized Crimea’s independence, which could be a...

Ukraine crisis reveals Europe’s strengths

by | Feb 19, 2014 | Blog

Things in Europe do not seem to be going so well these days. The Eurozone crisis is a recent memory. European politicians bicker over bailouts or make reckless threats. Unemployment is high. The Swiss are voting out the immigrants and in many European countries...