Could the crisis in Ukraine transform Russia?
Most of the commentary surrounding the extraordinary “euromaidan” demonstrations and fall of Ukraine’s government has focused on Russia’s influence on Ukraine, and in particular, the question of Russian intervention to support the now-deposed Yanukovich government....
After Sochi, where is Russia headed?
Take a look at the graph below of the economic performance of the major oil-rich nations of the world over the past 30 years. The divergence is startling. In this case, “major” is defined as a population exceeding 3 million. “Oil-rich” means that oil exports account...
Ukraine crisis reveals Europe’s strengths
Things in Europe do not seem to be going so well these days. The Eurozone crisis is a recent memory. European politicians bicker over bailouts or make reckless threats. Unemployment is high. The Swiss are voting out the immigrants and in many European countries...
The German Constitutional Court leads by example
The differences in interpretation of the recent German Constitutional Court ruling on the legality of “bailouts” by the ECB have been extraordinary. In part this is understandable: the court, in effect, ruled that bailouts via OMT are illegal under German law, but...
Brinksmanship strategies and the US debt ceiling
Speaking of brinksmanship, the passage of a bill to raise the US debt ceiling with no strings attached makes much more sense when viewed through a strategic lens. The standard view is that partisanship has rendered Washington dysfunctional, that the differences...
The crisis that made the Eurozone
Most economists have been too pessimistic about the Eurozone crisis. The famous names who forecast a Eurozone breakup – Martin Wolf, Niall Ferguson – were generally guilty of confusing “broken” with “cannot be fixed”. There were good reasons for this confusion....
Heed the Calls for Transparency
As a consequence of the global crisis, financial services executives are preparing for a regulatory overhaul. But probably few have considered how to deal with the intensive scrutiny of their sector that’s now coming from all corners – the public, NGOs, foreign...
A new wave of expropriations?
With oil prices near $60/barrel, it seems like the best of times for oil companies. But it easily could be the worst of times. Recall the tumultuous sequence of events that followed the last global surge in commodity prices, during the 1960s and 70s. In the mid-1960s,...
The Emerging Markets Have Emerged
The acquisition of IBM’s PC business by China’s Lenovo was no red herring. The emerging markets have, at long last, emerged. It looks, at first, like just another bubble in emerging equities. Following the acquisition of IBM’s PC business by China’s Lenovo, Chinese...
Will the Tsunami Bring a Wave of Instability to Asia?
The tsunami, which left as many as 160,000 dead, hit countries with a tenuous hold on political stability – a province of Indonesia that is home to a violent separatist movement, a region in Sri Lanka that is currently at peace but has fought a long-running civil war....