Is a wave of sovereign defaults on the way?

The sovereign debtor that would win hands down a nomination as “most likely to fail” is surely Greece, which has just threatened to default on its next payment to the IMF. But Greece could be a distraction – history suggests sovereign default risk is rising elsewhere,...

Why a federal Ukraine is a worst-case scenario

Ahead of US-EU-Russia talks on the future of Ukraine on Thursday, pro-Russian protesters – possibly assisted by Russian special forces – have escalated their disruptions in Eastern Ukraine beyond Crimea. While media coverage is understandably alarmist, these...

Ukraine is Europe’s struggle, and it is likely to win

There has been a great deal of commentary regarding alleged blunders that have led us to the current position in Ukraine (as I write this, the Ukrainian province of Crimea has voted to join Russia, and Russia has recognized Crimea’s independence, which could be a...

Could the crisis in Ukraine transform Russia?

Most of the commentary surrounding the extraordinary “euromaidan” demonstrations and fall of Ukraine’s government has focused on Russia’s influence on Ukraine, and in particular, the question of Russian intervention to support the now-deposed Yanukovich government....