Will China crash?

A tongue-in-cheek economic indicator with an uncanny track record of accuracy is that any country building the world’s tallest building will shortly thereafter enter recession. Malaysia completed the Petronas Towers in 1998, just in time for the Asian financial...

Venezuela, oil prices and political risk

Following the extraordinary people power uprising that toppled the government of Ukraine, and after weeks of protests in Caracas, Venezuela’s capital, many are asking, “will Venezuela be the next Ukraine”? There are asking the wrong question. The question is, will...

A new wave of expropriations?

With oil prices near $60/barrel, it seems like the best of times for oil companies. But it easily could be the worst of times. Recall the tumultuous sequence of events that followed the last global surge in commodity prices, during the 1960s and 70s. In the mid-1960s,...

Can Indonesia Bounce Back?

Of the Asian crisis economies, Indonesia has suffered the longest and rebounded most slowly. Last month’s free and peaceful elections firmly established the country – the world’s largest majority-Muslim state – as a functioning democracy. But can it bounce back to its...

Venezuela’s Sea of Unhappiness

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has survived a recall referendum and may well serve out the remainder of his term. Global oil prices dropped a bit on the prospect of stability. So all’s well in Venezuela? “Venezuela…is heading in the same direction, toward the same...